The grip that these companies have today is almost unbreakable. But – that’s a grip on the de facto platforms of today. Meaning the internet, mobile and computing devices as we know them.

As history has taught us, what’s easier than breaking a grip that strong, is to render the platform its gripped on obsolete. Kodak was unbreakable in film. Until digital came along.  Nokia was unbreakable in mobile devices. Until smartphones came along. Dell was unbreakable in computers. Until  tablets came along.

I think what will disrupt these de facto goliaths of today is a move to a completely new playing field that will render the internet, and computer devices – including mobile devices – totally obsolete and unnecessary.  Yes – unnecessary. And that will happen in the next two decades. continue reading »

I’ve finally decided to write my two pence on what’s become quite a bubbly discussion in itself: are we in another tech bubble?

Let me start by saying rather controversially that first I think this is the wrong question to be asking. Great companies have emerged out of bubbles as we’ve seen in the Web 1.0 phase. Yes there were a lot of failures, busts and losses in early 2000’s; but what we forget is that there have also been big winners whose collective gain outstrips those losses. Companies like eBay, Amazon and Cisco all came out of the first tech bubble and have proven to have strong and sustainable businesses which are still growing. So focus on what YOU are doing not what the herd is doing I say.

And what is a bubble anyway? There are tonnes of text book definitions which ultimately focus on technical definitions like valuation. Are things over-priced and is there too much liquidity being pumped in a sector or asset class? To me these are the wrong definitions. We are at the onset of a paradigm shift (which I explain below) so almost by definition existing valuation models will be wrong, So for me multiples being high means very little. What it comes down to is people getting ahead of themselves and investing in things they don’t fully understand or appreciate – and why? Because someone else is. “Oh I have to jump on this bandwagon…everyone’s doing it” That’s what leads to irrational exuberance . continue reading »

One of the things that the film ‘the social network’ has done is raise a lot of controversy over the valuation of Facebook. Most people who are not in the web space find it astonishing that a company that young which has barely turned a profit is valued at a whopping $25bn! I am one of those believers that Facebook will become the biggest technology company in the world surpassing Microsoft, Apple – both of which have market capitalisations over $200 Bn – and yes even Google (who lags a bit behind with a market cap around $190 Bn) Here’s why.

First lets take a step back. On the face of it companies like Apple, Google and Facebook have little in common other than great tech people and fanatical users. But fundamentally they are enablers of the same thing: allowing people to communicate in easier and better ways and accessing information more readily.continue reading »